Friday, June 15, 2007

TEAMS ON THE RISE, DECLINE FOR 2007

Yesterday I discussed Bucky Brooks' predictions for the rise and fall of players in 2007; here is a column by Randy Hill of Fox Sports on teams who will improve and who will regress. Hill predicts that the 49ers out of the NFC and the Texans (yes, really) out of the AFC will improve, and that the Bears and Ravens will fall.

A lot of people seem high on the 49ers this year, and it's tough to blame them -- Alex Smith is an emerging star at quarterback, Frank Gore is a legit Pro Bowler running the ball, and I have an unhealthy obsession with Vernon Davis: I think if he stays healthy this season, he'll be one of the top three tight ends in the league. Their defense last year left a lot to be desired, but with the additions of rookie Patrick Willis, and defensive backs Nate Clements and Michael Lewis, you have to think this unit will improve. It also helps playing in the NFC West, arguably the worst division in the entire league. But I like the Cardinals here -- yes, I know, they were supposed to break out last year, too -- if their offensive line holds up (and the addition of rookie Levi Brown should help), their offense is going to be scary: Leinart, Edge, Fitzgerald, Boldin and even Leonard Pope help to make up a formidable unit. On the other side of the ball, where the Cards ranked 23rd in the league, they have some playmakers as well: Dockett, Dansby, Wilson, and Rolle. I also think rookies Buster Davis and Alan Branch will gain significant and meaningful playing time as the season wears on.

As for the Texans: I'm sorry, but I don't see it. I mean, look at their depth chart on offense. Is Schaub really even an upgrade over David Carr? Dropping back behind that line, I have my doubts about him. Ahman Green is 30 and, did I mention, the Texans have a pretty brutal O-line? Defensively, call me crazy, but I think Mario Williams will have a double-digit sack season. Thrown in Dunta Robinson, Okoye, and DeMeco Ryans, and you have the makings of a young, improving defense. It's just not going to happen this year, not with the Colts and Jags as strong as they are. But hey, Texans fans, you do have the best blog of any newspaper writer out there. Personally, I think Cincinnati makes the jump this year out of the AFC. Can you call a team who finished 8-8 a candidate to be a "surprise" team this season? Probably not. But look at the AFC standings from last year: only five teams finished under .500, and I see the possibility of only either the Jets or Dolphins climbing to at least nine wins this year. But I like my chances better with the Bengals winning 11 or 12 games -- look at their schedule, it's pretty manageable.

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While I certainly don't think Chicago will duplicate last season's success, I don't see them falling off the radar either, if only because of one thing: they play in the NFC North. Who else is going to win that division? I actually like everything about Minnesota except for their quarterback situation, but that's kind of a tough shortcoming to overcome. The Bears play on the road at San Diego (one of the best match-ups of the year), Philadelphia, and Seattle; they also have Dallas, Denver, and New Orleans at home; and they have what I would consider three gimme games at Detroit, Green Bay, and Oakland, although playing on the road is never easy. What am I trying to say here? I'm not really sure, except that I can see the Bears taking this division with nine wins. The team I see falling hard in the NFC is Seattle, a team FO ranked as the 25th best team in the league last year. If Shaun Alexander cannot return to form, this team is going to collapse; I just have that feeling. This is not an easy way to begin your season: you can't see them starting out 1-5?

Finally, I'm having a tough time projecting for the Ravens. The last six games on their schedule are going to be brutal (Seattle is a great home team), McNair is a year older, and McGahee is coming off an uninspired season in Buffalo. In short, their offense is going to be mediocre. But oh, that defense -- it's just so good, even after losing Adalius Thomas to New England, and it will keep them in many games. I think they're going to come close to snagging that final wild card spot in the AFC, but will ultimately fall short (note: prediction subject to change). One team that I think will definitely fall short of the playoffs is the New York Jets, a team that FO had ranked as only the 19th best team in the league last season. While I like the addition of Thomas Jones in the backfield, I don't see enough firepower coming from their passing game, and their defense will not hold up in road games against the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys, and Bengals, among others.

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