REDSKINS OPEN CAMP

• I was a little surprised, like many others, when Washington took safety LaRon Landry with their first round pick in April's draft, but don't all 'Skins fans have to be excited about a defensive backfield that boasts both Landry and Sean Taylor? It will be even better if Landry helps to improve the team's number 31 ranking against the rush. But perhaps no Redskin has more pressure on him this season than Jason Campbell, who will be the team's undisputed leader on offense. Last fall, David Lewin wrote an article for Football Outsiders on Campbell, proclaiming: "I don’t know a single Redskins fan not excited for the Jason Campbell era to start." Well, that era officially starts this year.

• Just a hunch, but I think Pete Kendall, despite his contract issues, will be suiting up in Week 1 for the Jets. Over at The Jets Blog, the commenters have their take on the issue. And as for their supposed quarterback competition for the #2 job, there's no chance Kelly Clemens isn't that guy once the season starts.

• If I was Chris Brown, and had equal offers from Chicago and Tennessee, I'd sign with the Titans. Sure, the Bears are going to have the better year, but he's almost guaranteed to be the starter in Tennessee.

• Has there been a more consistent receiver over the past seven years than Torry Holt? Check out his stats. Let's hope he comes back from surgery ready to play. Also in St. Louis, now that Jimmy Kennedy has been shipped to Denver, rookie DT Clifton Ryan is suddenly in competition for a spot on the second team.

• The Colts have to give more guaranteed money to Dwight Freeney than the Saints gave to Charles Grant ($20M), right?

• I love the way Brandon Jacobs runs the ball, but I just don't see him and Reuben Droughns combining to match Tiki Barber's production from last year. And I think that's going to doom the Giants this year.

• The release of Donovon Darius came as a surprise to some Jacksonville veterans, and to the guys at Big Cat Country as well.
  

ANYBODY WANT TO BE THE BROWNS STARTING QB?

In my last post, I mentioned that I didn't have high hopes for the Cleveland Browns this season -- Charlie Frye and Jamal Lewis are their starting quarterback and running back, after all -- but that I was intrigued, like most people, by their draft class. They brought in Joe Thomas, Brady Quinn, and Eric Wright, all three first-round talents in many scouts' eyes. Of course, Quinn will get the most press this season, for obvious reasons, and I am interested to see how long it will take him to secure the starting QB job. Patrick McManamon of the Akron Beacon Journal reports that if you're searching for some clarity in the QB battle, however, do not expect some anytime soon.

PLAYERS ON THE RISE, DECLINE FOR 2007

Bucky Brooks of SI.com -- I don't have any idea who he is -- ran two nice little gimmick columns this week: 10 players ready to break out in 2007, and 10 players who will decline. I admit, I am a sucker for these types of lists, and Brooks' makes for an interesting read. Among his break-out players are Jerious Norwood and Jay Cutler, and those he expects to take a dive next season are Trent Green and Jamal Lewis.

Until reading Brooks' article, I didn't know that Norwood averaged 6.4 per carry his rookie season -- quite an impressive feat. Football Outsiders ranked him as the 15th best RB in the league last season, though is sample size -- 99 carries -- is obviously very small. It will be very interesting to see how many more carries new head coach Bobby Petrino will give him this season, and how that will impact Warrick Dunn. Naturally, more carries for Norwood will probably equal less for Dunn, but last season proved that winning teams (Saints, Colts, Pats, Bears) can utilize a two-back system, and this would ensure that Dunn -- who is 32 -- will take less of a beating.

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Out of last season's the three star rookie QBs, I expected Vince Young's name to appear on the "break-out" list before Cutler (or did VY already break-out last season?), but if last year is any indication, Denver may finally have found John Elway's true successor. Brooks cites Cutler's 59% completion percentage and 88.5 QB rating -- not to mention 9 TDs against 5 INTs in limited action -- as strong indicators for future success, and it's tough to argue with that. FO is not so kind to Cutler's rookie season, however, ranking him behind not only Young and Matt Leinart, but also the man he replaced in Denver, Jake Plummer. Nevertheless, I agree with Brooks here and expect big things out of Cutler next season, and for Denver to return to the playoffs as a wild card.

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Sometimes I feel that Trent Green has had one of the most unheralded careers in league history at the quarterback position: I mean, just look at his numbers from 2002-2005. During those four seasons, he was one of the top three QBs in the league, right? He suffered a head injury last season, as everybody knows, and attempted only 198 passes. And he's 36 years old. But I think Green -- if, of course, he can stay healthy -- will have a productive season in Miami in 2007. He has weapons around him -- Chris Chambers, Ted Ginn, Ronnie Brown -- and a strong defense to keep games close, and so I think it was a wise decision by Miami to acquire him from Kansas City. Will this equal a playoff berth coming out of the very competitive AFC East? I'm not so sure about that, but I'd be surprised if they didn't win at least eight games next year.

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As for Jamal Lewis, he averaged 3.4 and 3.6 yards per carry his past two seasons, and that was behind an offensive line in Baltimore that was much stronger than the one he will be running behind this year in Cleveland. The Browns are going to have a rough year, I'm afraid. I loved their draft -- they essentially plucked three first rounders out of it, and I think eventually Brady Quinn will prove to be a better player than JaMarcus Russell -- but Dallas has to be salivating at the thought of Cleveland finishing 4-12 next year and then having to hand over that top five pick to the 'Boys.

CHADIHA: OLDER RUNNING BACKS CAN STILL PLAY

Anybody familiar with the work of Football Outsiders knows their take on running backs: when balancing salary cap and on-field production, it's better to go with a cheap, young back than an older, expensive one.

Jeffri Chadiha of ESPN.com, however, notes that for some older running backs, the perception of their declining production has not been met with a decline in their wallets. Chadiha cites the new contracts of New York's Thomas Jones, Houston's Ahman Green, and Denver's Travis Henry. Both Jones and Henry will turn 29 this season, and they each received $12 million in guarantees. Green is 30 and will receive about $6 in guaranteed cash. And then Chadiha also notes Jacksonville's Fred Taylor, who netted a $8 million signing bonus when he inked his four-year extension with the Jags.

So does this mean that NFL general managers are taking a longer look at older backs, believing they can keep up their production into their 30s? Or is this simply a few examples of GMs over-paying for declining talent? Well, of the deals mentioned above, I like the Jets move the best -- Jones is a legitimate starter, and they can always spell him with Leon Washington, who had a pretty good rookie year last season. I am not a fan of either the Green or Taylor signings: Green will be running behind a brutal line and playing with an untested quarterback, which is a recipe for disaster; Taylor is injured seemingly every year, and Maurice Jones Drew should be the starter this year anyway. But that's just me.

You can join FO's discussion on this topic -- and on Chadiha's article -- right here.

JAGS SHOW INTEREST IN CULPEPPER

• Now that we know Jacksonville's interest in Daunte Culpepper is legitimate, the question begs: is he a good fit? According to Football Outsiders, the Jaguars ranked 19th last season in passing offense, and their best QB, David Garrard, was the 25th best passer in the league. Clearly, the team's strengths are running the ball and defense. Personally, I am not a fan of either Garrard or Byron Leftwich, but inserting Culpepper into that offense doesn't seem like much of an upgrade. We all know about his knee injury that ended his stay in Minnesota, and his lone season with the Dolphins was a disaster. But if Jacksonville can aquire Culpepper cheap, why not roll the dice and see what happens? Matt Mosley, for one, thinks he'll be starting by Week 6.

• Ed Bouchette writes that the Steelers players are warming up to new coach Mike Tomlin.

• One of the toughest decisions for a head coach with a highly-drafted rookie QB: throw him in there early, or let him watch on the sidelines for a few weeks? It says right here that Raiders #1 pick JaMarcus Russell should be starting in Week 1 against Detroit. I'm not so sure if I agree -- Oakland's line is not very good, and I think Russell will be taking a beating more than he will be progressing -- but it sure would be fun to have him and Calvin Johnson both starting in the same game. Meanwhile, in Miami, John Beck won't be starting anytime soon, but he seems to be learning a lot from newly acquired Trent Green.

• The Browns are having a tough time adjusting to new coordinator Rob Chudzinski's offense, including Brady Quinn. John Clayton writes that Quinn is having accuracy problems.

• Bob DeCesare raises a great point regarding Buffalo's odd decision to trade for Darwin Walker, and yet not renegotiate his contract, even though Walker's agent made clear that any trade was contingent on a restructuring. If a compromise can't be met, the Bills essentially will have given away Kelly Holcomb and Takeo Spikes for a few late round draft picks. The FanHouse has more. In other Bills news, it appears likely that defensive tackle John McCargo will be ready for the start of the season.

• The headline from the New York Daily News says it all: "Coughlin: Shut up & play!"